LONDON (ICIS) – UK wholesale energy Day-ahead came in at £ 147 / MWh for basic delivery on January 6 and £ 230 / MWh at peak times, according to reported OTC transactions at ICIS. These are both the most expensive day-ahead prices since the historic highs recorded on November 7, 2016.
Later on January 5, the transmission system operator (TSO) National Grid published an electricity margin notice reporting a shortfall of 584 MW in its preferred supply-demand margin by 4:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. London time the next day. , asking for extra supply or demand- side response to compensate. The TSO will publish an update at 10:00 am on January 6.
The bullish fundamentals behind the prompt should start to fade from the weekend.
National Grid initially announced on Jan.4 that it expected tight system margins later in the week, due to a combination of under-supply from light winds and high demand from low temperatures.
On January 5, the TSO forecast UK wind production of only 3.1 GW the next day, compared to 8.5 GW generated in January 2020.
Temperatures in the UK have fallen to an average of 2.9 ° C below normal since December 25, with the cold snap set to continue for the rest of the week.
Meanwhile, imports from the mainland remain limited by an unplanned outage that took the 1GW BritNed interconnection with the Netherlands offline on December 8. Transparency data showed an estimated return to service at the end of January.
The start of the 1GW IFA2 interconnection, bringing cross-border capacity with France to 3GW,
has been delayed from November to “in the first quarter of 2021”.
The upcoming Belgian Electricity Day for January 6 turned into a large premium for France on the EPEX SPOT exchange, with exports along the Nemolink with the UK set to reach full capacity of 1 GW during most peak hours.
National Grid predicts that UK wind output will drop again to 3.3 GW on Friday and then increase to 6.7 GW in the second week of the year.
The January 5 Forecaster MetDesk reported that temperatures in the UK had risen above normal in the second week and that above normal anomalies generally persisted through February, although more doubt was attached to the longer term forecasts.